Paper year
2026
Paper dossier
Bayesian-Optimized Ensemble Learning for Music Popularity Prediction with Shapley-Based Interpretability
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unknown
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Controlled edge slice
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Run shadow-generalization-product-candidate-ranking-v1Top 50 surfaced
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2
Top 50
0
Run label
shadow-generalization-product-candidate-ranking-v1
Snapshot
source-snapshot-shadow-generalization-v1-20260521
Scope: family global | run rank-83787b91ef
Emerging
Present in run, outside top 50
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Signals: semantic=0.8393, citation_velocity=0.0000, topic_growth=0.0000, diversity_penalty=0.0000
Why this surfaced | 3 used | 1 penalty | 1 not computed
Embedding slice fit (corpus centroid)used
Embedding slice fit (corpus centroid): high; used in final ranking (contribution to score: 0.1679)
Recent attentionused
Recent attention: low; used in final ranking (contribution to score: 0.0000)
Topic momentumused
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Cross-cluster signalnot computed
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Similarity penaltypenalty
Similarity penalty: reduces score when non-zero (contribution to score: 0.0000)
Bridge
Present in run, outside top 50
Multi-topic paper in active topics; no cluster_version on this run so bridge_score was not computed.
Signals: citation_velocity=0.0000, topic_growth=0.0000, diversity_penalty=1.0000
Why this surfaced | 2 used | 1 penalty | 2 not computed
Semantic matchnot computed
Semantic match: not computed for this run
Recent attentionused
Recent attention: low; used in final ranking (contribution to score: 0.0000)
Topic momentumused
Topic momentum: low; used in final ranking (contribution to score: 0.0000)
Cross-cluster signalnot computed
Cross-cluster signal: not computed for this run
Topic breadth penaltypenalty
Topic breadth penalty: reduces score when non-zero (contribution to score: -0.2000)
Under-cited
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Abstract
Music popularity prediction is a fundamental problem in music information retrieval, with important implications for digital content dissemination and creative decision-making on streaming platforms. In this study, music popularity prediction is formulated as a supervised regression problem, and six widely-used tree ensemble models (Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, Extra Trees, and Decision Tree) are systematically evaluated using large-scale Spotify data. Among these models, Random Forest achieves the best predictive performance on this dataset (RMSE = 6.79, MAE = 5.10, and R2 = 0.6658), followed by Extra Trees (R2 = 0.6378) and Decision Tree (R2 = 0.6328). Bayesian hyperparameter optimization based on a Tree-structured Parzen Estimator with an Expected Improvement acquisition function is conducted over 50 trials with 5-fold cross-validation to ensure robust model selection. Shapley value decomposition via SHAP analysis reveals that temporal recency dominates feature importance, far surpassing traditional musical attributes, while acoustic intensity (loudness) exhibits a U-shaped contribution pattern with optimal values at moderate intensity levels. Further SHAP dependence analysis uncovers non-linear relationships, indicating substantial popularity advantages for recent releases and optimal loudness levels around −5 to 0 dB. These findings suggest that streaming popularity is primarily governed by temporal exposure dynamics and production-related characteristics rather than intrinsic musical structure, offering both theoretical insights for music information retrieval research and suggestive empirical patterns that may inform future investigations into digital music ecosystems.
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